These charts allow you to compare the trend in the vote margin between the various pollsters in each race and spot the "house effects" that make one set of results consistently different across.   Each race has two charts.  One simply connects the dots for each pollster, adding a regression "local trend line" that estimates the combined trend picked up by all telephone polls.  A good example is the Maryland Senate race (copied below).  Note that the three automated polls by SurveyUSA have all shown the race virtually tied, while other polls (including the automated surveys from Rasmussen Reports) show a narrowing race, with Democrat Ben Cardin typically leading by roughly five percentage points.

Another comparison of interest is the Tennessee Senate race.  We posted an earlier version of the pollster compare chart, which coincided with a lot of speculation about whether Democrat Harold Ford was doing consistently better on the surveys (by Rasmussen and SurveyUSA) that use an automated audio interview rather than a live interviewer.

To help facilitate that sort of comparison, we have also included a second format of chart that plots dots for each poll and three sets of gray "local trend" regression lines to estimate the combined trend for different types of polls:

• All telephone polls (solid gray)
• Telephone polls using live interviewers (gray dashed line)
• Telephone polls using Interactive Voice Response or IVR (gray dotted line)

Looking at the Tennessee chart, the IVR and live interviewer lines have converged since SurveyUSA started conducting surveys in that state in July.  So whatever made Ford perform consistently better in surveys by the other automated pollster -- Rasmussen Reports -- it was probably not the IVR methodology. 

• Timeframe selection -- By popular demand, you can now view charts from several different "timeframes:" polls since October 15, polls since September 1 and all data available (our classic view). You will find a simple pull-down menu below each chart letting you select the view.

• Roll-over pop-up info - if you aim your cursor pointer at any of the points on the chart, it will now pop-up the percentage for that point, the name of the poll and its release date.

• Embed Chart - This is the big one for bloggers or anyone else with a web site. At the bottom of each chart you will now find a box labeled "Embed Chart," that works just like the one on YouTube. It includes some HTML code that when copied into a blog post or web page will produce a small version of that chart on your blog...just like this...

The chart will update -- on your site -- whenever we add new data. Your readers can use the controls to turn data points, trend lines and confidence intervals on and off. Please, go ahead and give it a try (and when you do, make sure to use the Control-A keyboard shortcut to select all of the HTML code). As of tonight, our charts are your charts too!

Obviously, the election is now less than a week away, but we may have a few more surprises in store over the week. We will definitely plan to blog up a storm over the next seven days. So don't touch that dial.

Update: In working with this new feature this morning (which strictly speaking, is certainly still in its "beta" phase) we have found a few quirks. First, if you are having trouble seeing the charts clearly on Pollster.com, you might want to try clearing your browser cache. To do that on Internet Explorer, use the Tools menu, select Options, select the General tab and in the Temporary Internet Files section, click the Delete Files button, then click "OK" twice. On Firefox, use the Tools menu, select Options, click on the "privacy" button, then the "privacy" tab and then click the button that says "clear cache now."

Some advice to those pasting the embed code into a browser: Be careful to select and copy all the code (to be safe, use CTRL-A to select all) and be sure you paste it into whatever "HTML" mode your markup software uses. In Typepad for example, you will want to use the HTML window, not the "compose" window. Your HTML editor may not display the chart, but the "preview" mode usually will.

And to answer the question that has come up: Once the election is over, we are commiitted to keeping these charts posted permanently, just like any other permalinked blog content.

I wasn't able to get the charts to display on a post on my Blogger-based weblog with the code you provided -- I got an error message saying it was an illegal instruction. I was, however, able to get them to display using this code:

[embed src="http://www.pollster.com/swf/ChartSmall.swf?file=NJSen.xml&poll=all,36 5,250"; width="365"; height="250";][/embed]

(replace all square brackets with angle brackets)

You can see the results (5 charts are embedded) at
http://unfutz.blogspot.com/2006/11/missouri-is-key.html

If you have experienced any problems with the embed feature or any other aspect of our site, please do not hesitate to email us with details.

Update II: Alert reader MetaData at SquareState emailed to point out that one extraneous character in the code above was preventing it from working properly. I deleted that character, so if you tried the above fix and it didn't work, you may want to try it again. Thanks unfutz and thanks MetaData!

Digg This!

Apologies for the continuing noise and dust, but today we added several new and long awaited features here on Pollster.com: Interactive maps and national level scorecards for races for the U.S. Senate and Governor.

The maps and tables display both last-5-poll averages and our classification of each race based on the approximate statistical significance of candidate leads. A more detailed description of how we derive these numbers follows after the jump.

As with any new software there are bound to be a few glitches we have overlooked. If you experience any difficulty, please do not hesitate to drop us a line and describe the problem.

And yes, we will also be adding a map and scorecard for races for the U.S. House very soon.  Stay tuned. And if all goes well, we should have even more new features to tell you about by the end of the week. Hopefully, we've saved the best for last.

Credit where it is due: The interactive Flash map applications were designed by the talented folks at Constituent Dynamics, the same company that is part of the team that brings you the Majority Watch surveys. We saw their congressional district map, liked it and asked if we could borrow it. One thing led to another, and we decided to bring them on board to help create some custom tables and maps for us. We hope you like their work as much as we do.   Also huge credit to our partner Charles Franklin, the unsung hero who crunches all the data that appears in all those tables and maps.

While we experienced a few small bumps in the road while getting everything installed today, our sponsor/partners at Polimetrix have have been working hard on some critical upgrades you cannot see. Our servers and data process have been beefed up significantly to handle the heavier traffic. Many thanks to Polimetrix for their ongoing efforts to keep everying running smoothly.

Now back to regular programming. More details on how we got the numbers and classifications that appear in the map after the jump.

Continue Reading]]> http://test.pollster.com/mystery_pollster/yes_we_have_maps.php http://test.pollster.com/mystery_pollster/yes_we_have_maps.php Mystery Pollster Pollster.com Mon, 23 Oct 2006 16:35:22 -0500

Hear that hammering and pounding? It's probably the construction crew here at Pollster.com that has been hard at work adding few new features to the site lately, with a lot more to come. Here's what's new tonight:

• By popular demand, we have now posted data for 20 of the most competitive U.S. House races and will be adding many more races in the next few days. For the moment, we do not yet have House race charts, but those will be coming soon as well. For now, you can access the House race data anywhere within Pollster by clicking on the "Polls tab" as the top of the page.

• Data tables on the chart pages now have live hyperlinks to source pages. The links are not the conventional style (underlined text) and so may not be obvious, but clicking on the pollster name in any data table should bring up the source web page (the original article or pollster release, with full results were available). We have kept the original source links, some of which may no longer be active.

• We have also made a number of minor tweaks to appearance of the charts and tables. Unfortunately, one feature that is not working quite right as of tonight is the check box on the left of the data tables that should allow you to "check" and "uncheck" individual polls to remove polls from the chart and put them back again.  The problem is that "re-checking" does not make the poll reappear --although you can do that by clicking the "reset chart" link at the top right of the table. Consider this a "known bug" that we are working on. One important note: Please remember that removing a poll from the chart does NOT cause the trend line (the average of the last five polls) to redraw.

As long as we are on the subject of things that don't work quite right, I want to ask about some printing problems we have heard about from a few readers. Have you tried to print out blog posts with unacceptable results? If so, please drop us a line, describe the problem and be sure to tell us the name and version of your browser.

Also, please do not hesitate to alert us to any other aspect of the site that needs fixing or improving. We have had many such helpful requests since our launch, and while I apologize for not responding to every email, we have certainly read and recorded them all. One needed improvement at the top of my list is to provide the option to narrow the time frame on charts (to look at the last few weeks or months). Be assured we are working on it, and thank you for your continuing patience!

But don't worry, the "Mystery Pollster" (yours truly) is still here.  We changed the menus to better reflect the fact that contributions will come from many authors, not just me.  The main blog page (http://www.pollster.com/blogs/) will continue to function as it has since our launch, displaying posts from all authors, including both myself and Charles Franklin.  The specific tabs for Mark Blumenthal, Charles Franklin and our new Pollster's Corner are intended to allow readers to find recent posts by our various contributors more easily.  But everything will also appear on the "main" blog page, so you need not change your bookmarks.  

We are most excited about the new "Guest Pollster's Corner," which we hope to provide a forum for regular "bloggy" contributions from a wide array of pollsters of all varieties:  media and campaign; Democrat, Republican and non-partisan.  The first contribution, from Gallup's Frank Newport, will follow shortly.  

One minor note:  I will be off for the next 24 hours or so for Yom Kippur.  I wish an easy fast to all those observing with me.