But how is this business doing?

Political polling (which drives the majority of the visitors to this site) is a fairly predictable business driven by the electoral calendar and not by the business cycle. The business of political polling is facing several large (but manageable) challenges. One is cooperation rates and the other is the decline of the landline. But, this business seems to be humming along at its usual clip, relatively immune to the great recession.

However, many political polling firms also have large commercial research businesses. These commercial research businesses are frequently dominated by public affairs and corporate messaging research practices, but have branched out into traditional market research work as well.

And how is this part of the industry doing?

It's been a tough year.

The Research Industry Trends 2009 Survey polled 512 individuals in the market research industry, including those on the supplier and client (inside a corporation) side. The results are unpleasant for anyone in the industry:

1. 57% reported a decline in revenue.
2. Only 42% of US based researchers expect a growth year.
3. 73% agreed that research is becoming commoditized with clients less willing to pay for quality.
4. 70% agree that clients are demanding shorter timelines and faster delivery of results.

To see the full report, here or here

At a broader level, this data tracks closely with my assessment of the industry and where it is headed.

For a lengthier read on where I think the market research industry is going, click here

The survey clearly identified the growing importance of digital tools for both communicating with constituents and for constituents reaching their members. They noted websites have become ubiquitous in terms of their usage and effectiveness in reaching constituents (82% feel they are effective) while other outlets have also demonstrated their positive impact - online videos (52%), blogging (46%) and micro blogging such as Twitter (22%).

In terms of the effectiveness in reaching their members of Parliament and Congress through digital means, e-mail scored the highest at 87% effective with Member's blog rated at 31%, Member's social network at 22% and microblogs, such as Twitter, at 7%.

The study found that staffers are turning to social networks, blogs and microblogs more regularly for personal usage (Facebook 60%, YouTube 52%, Personal Blog 12%, Twitter 11%) than they are for professional reasons. However, their usage patterns reflect receptivity to these tools and an opportunity to increase usage for analysis, communicating with constituents and reaching colleagues on policy issues.

For the full report, click here: http://edelman.com/capital_staffers_index.pdf

But what metaphors do Americans apply to their own lives? What metaphor do they believe most describes their own life?

I've wondered about this for some time as a researcher. More than just interesting data, I believe that this question can be useful for advertising, writing copy, and marketing products (especially lifestyle products that tend to mesh with life milestones).

The question strikes me as a valuable psychographic data point.

With this in mind, StrategyOne polled Americans (n=1,000 telephone survey) October 9-12, 2009 with the following question:

"People often use metaphors to describe their life... Which ONE of the following do you think best descibes your life?"

A Journey: 51%
A Battle: 11%
The Seasons: 10%
A Novel: 8%
A Race: 6%
A Live Performance, Like a Play: 5%
A Carousel: 4%
Other: 2%
Unsure: 2%

The responses above were provided to particpants and are well-known life metaphors from Western culture. For example, life as a journey is from Homer's Odyssey (and the Epic of Gilgamesh should also be credited as well). Life as a battle is Homer's Iliad. Life as the seasons is from Ecclesiastes and ascribed to King Solomon. Life as a race is from St. Paul. And life as a performance or play is from The Bard - Shakespeare.

The interesting thing about the data in this instance is that (a) journey is the dominant metaphor for life among Americans and (b) there are minimal differences by age, gender and region. The only real difference is by income where those making less than $35,000 are three times as likely to describe their lives as a battle (20% vs. 6% average for the other income groups).

In the political realm this suggests that candidates may be best served explaining their bios within the context of a journey rather than a battle or some other metaphor.

Multinational comparisons would be interesting here. Would more traditional, non Western countries rely so heavily on the journey metaphor?

Finally, it should be noted that this is in no way as penetrating as Zaltman's "Marketing Metaphoria" and does not delve into what the authors of this exceptional work call "deep metaphors." Instead, we were interested in the tactical question of what metaphors for life aare the most useful in basic communication and marketing materials.

The first is on the pace of change that the Obama administration is pushing (question CURX4 on page 23) and asks respondents if the Obama adminstration is... "trying to change too many things too quickly", "changing things about the right amount at the right speed", or "not changing enough things quickly enough". The wording is a bit clunky, but the segmentation is fascinating and worth tracking. Between April and July the "too quickly" and "right amount" percentages have nearly flipped, suggesting that a growing percentage of the public (32% in April and now 49%) may be concerned at the direction and pace of change. Even more interesting is that this data shows the American public evenly split with 49% wanting a slower rate of change and 49% thinking the rate of change is either about right (37%) or not fast enough (12%). It would be very interesting to see this data among 2008 voters, self IDed independents, and 2004 red state independents.

The second is on job loss. Question CUR38 (page 26) asks for self-reported job loss for the respondent and "someone in your family". It would be stronger if it asked "someone in your household", but the trend data is fascinating and will be interesting to watch over time. Interestingly, the companion question queries on job loss over the past six months among "someone you know personally." This again would be interesting to track over time.

First, social media and the digital explosion is an undeniable trend, and it can be harnessed for qualitative (not quantitative) research purposes. Twitter could clearly be used as a part of a qualitative feedback loop for corporations or institutions with a desire to constantly track customer perception and experience. In the marketing and research industries these systems are often referred to as EFM or "enterprise feedback management". Twitter/Tweet monitoring and tracking could make a useful complement to the hosted online communities that many consumer brand companies are building. Communispace (http://www.communispace.com/) and VoVici (http://www.vovici.com/) are two hosted online community providers that leap immediately to mind. If they aren't already, I would expect these two firms to develop social media conversation monitoring as a tandem product.

Second, the author clearly notes that (a) it is impossible to make Twitter data nationally projectable and (b) it is unlikely that it could ever become a quantitative tool. She clearly notes that, "a major drawback reflects the lack of a quality sampling method, a core requirement for obtaining valid and reliable research results." Inevitably, there will be companies over the next few years that will claim to have a conversation analytics offering built upon a social media application that is a statistically projectable quantitative tool. This will annoy real researchers immeasurably.

Third, Pettit notes that on larger subjects or widely used products, an enormous amount of qualitative data could be mined. With advances in text analytics software, research and marketing teams could identify fast moving trends by looking for words or phrases that pop overnight. For example, a travel destination like Dubai could track tweets that utilize standard travel terms and Dubai. A daily or weekly sampling of this datastream could then focus on aspects of the consumer experience and look for patterns, problems and opportunities. Large CPG companies and service-based companies (airlines, amusement parks, etc.) could find this analysis useful.

Finally, monitoring and analyzing conversation streams like Twitter is a passive, non-interventional type of qualitative research. Recently referred to as "listening outposts" in the market research community (see Surinder Siama's April, 2009 article in Research World), there is something to be said for the purity and authenticity of this type of unprompted qualitative data.

This is just the beginning of a much larger trend in market research. Watch for it.